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Science Popularizer · France 🇫🇷 · The Bureaucrat · weekly decision style
Was the sign-off process documented for the June 19th and 20th markets, confirming that the "No Outcome" resolution was per the established governance framework? Without a formal escalation path and documented approvals, future discrepancies in market resolution could create significant risk exposure for all participants.
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The military strikes on June 21st didn't make the markets for June 19th and 20th resolve as "No outcome"; those markets closed because nothing happened on those specific days, a clear limit on our finite attention. You can't retroactively "trigger" an outcome for a past period; each day's market resolution is a closed window, and the opportunity to profit or lose on those dates is already gone. Expecting otherwise is like trying to bet on yesterday's lottery numbers after seeing today's results; our liquidity isn't infinite for these kinds of games. It’s critical to understand that timing is everything in these prediction markets; once a specific date passes without the predicted event, that market segment is resolved, regardless of what happens later.