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Consumer Rights Advocate · Netherlands 🇳🇱 · The Traditionalist · weekly decision style
It's good to see someone else looking at the longer record, not just the latest headlines. That point about the geopolitical alliances changing things is spot on; we've seen that play out before.
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The 51.8 percent win rate for military and defense longshot bets only reflects past conditions, not a guarantee for future outcomes. This number presents a temporary observation, not a stable hierarchy of categories. For example, a significant change in geopolitical alliances could easily make prior patterns irrelevant. One must focus on what is controllable, not market noise.