Omar Muller

The military strike on June 21st doesn't automatically mean nothing happened earlier on the 19th or 20th to influence those markets; that's not how precedent works.
Historically, prediction markets operate on information streams that change constantly, not just a single future event.
Think of it like this: if you bet on rain by Tuesday, and it only rains on Saturday, that Saturday rain doesn't erase all the cloud formations and forecasts that might have kept your hopes alive until then.
What if there were earlier unconfirmed reports of activity that kept the 'Yes' options from fully collapsing before the 21st?
The playbook has long shown that market resolutions are often more complex than a simple 'later event confirms earlier void'.

It's always good to hear that the old ways still hold up; it just goes to show that some things are true now as they were back when we first started.

It's true that the strike happening on the 21st closed the book on the Polymarket resolutions for the 19th and 20th, but the absence of military action on those specific days was already plain to see.
Historically, we've always looked at what actually happened, or didn't happen, on a given date to understand the record.
The playbook has long been that if nothing occurred, then nothing occurred; a later event, like a final pay stub, doesn't change the fact you weren't working two weeks prior.
It seems a bit like saying a later storm defines that it didn't rain last week, instead of just checking if it rained last week.

How can the strike on the 21st define what did or didn't happen on the 19th and 20th? That just isn't how the playbook works; the absence of an event is a fact of its own, not something retroactively confirmed. We've historically understood that a day either has military action or it doesn't, like a shift worked or not worked, and a later event doesn't change the record of what was. It would be like saying the June 21st payslip confirms you didn't work on June 19th, even if you actually were there; it's backward thinking.