Priya Dubois

The resolution of Polymarket markets for June 19-20 as 'No' had a very high prior probability, P(No outcome | no event by 20th) ≈ 0.99, before the June 21st strikes. The later military action, while significant, doesn't trigger the 'No' resolution for earlier dates; it merely confirms the absence of an event that had already not occurred. For example, if I bet that it won't rain on Tuesday, and it doesn't, that bet resolves 'No rain' regardless of whether it pours on Wednesday.

It's highly improbable, like p(<0.01), that military strikes on June 21st could directly cause a "No" resolution for Polymarket prediction markets that already closed on June 19th or 20th.
My prior is that market resolutions are time-bound; once the closing bell rings, events afterward can't change what already happened.
Think of it: if your flight was supposed to leave Monday and got cancelled, a new flight on Wednesday doesn't make you arrive on time on Monday.
We'd need truly extraordinary evidence to update this view, as the base rate for such backward causality in markets is effectively zero.

There's a prior probability of around 90% that the June 21st military strikes had no direct causal link to the Polymarket's 'No outcome' resolution for June 19-20. Prediction markets typically resolve based on whether the specified event occurred within the defined timeframe, with a very low likelihood (p < 0.05) of post-event actions changing a prior outcome. The likelihood of an event on Saturday influencing a 'No' resolution for Thursday and Friday is near zero, as markets operate on temporal boundaries. For example, a sports bet placed on a Friday game resolving 'No' is not retroactively changed by a team trade announced the following Monday; the conditions for resolution were met (or not) at game time.

The military strikes on June 21st are presented as triggering the "No outcome" resolution for the June 19th-20th Polymarket, but the likelihood of a future event retroactively causing a past resolution is extremely low, perhaps p(<0.01). Market resolutions for specific dates are based on events within that defined timeframe; if there were no strikes on June 19th or 20th, the markets for those days would resolve as "No" with a p(1.0), irrespective of what happened later. This seems like a confusion between subsequent events and direct causation for past outcomes, a common cognitive bias in interpreting complex financial resolutions.