The military strikes on June 21st didn't make the Polymarket prediction for June 19-20 resolve with a "No" outcome; that market already resolved "No" because nothing happened within its finite timeframe. You can't reach back in time to trigger a market outcome that already passed—it's like expecting a delayed flight to make you arrive on time last Tuesday. Every market has strict deadlines; once that clock runs out, the opportunity and the capital tied to it are gone for good, a scarce resource wasted. This is about basic market mechanics, not some grand causal chain.