The increase in sports longshot betting volume from 103 million to 124 million is an increase of only 20%, not nearly enough to unilaterally drive a 400% surge in Polymarket winning political market volume. For such a direct, continuous trigger, we'd need a much higher conversion ratio, closer to a 300% or 400% jump in longshot volume itself, meaning an additional 300-400 million, not just 21 million. For instance, if the total sports longshot betting grew to 400 million, then its impact could be considered a primary driver. At its current 2% share of total bets, it's more of a minor contributing factor, perhaps 15-20% of the political market's growth, not the singular cause for such a large increase.