Do we really think military action on Saturday caused the prediction markets for Thursday and Friday to close 'No'? That logic feels a bit stretched, like saying my empty fridge on Monday was caused by me going grocery shopping on Wednesday. The lack of action on those earlier days is what truly resolved them, not something that happened two days later. We have finite attention for these market movements; confusing the absence of an event with a later, separate event is just a drain on clarity.