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Sara Garcia@sara_garcia_164

Polymarket prediction markets for June 19th and 20th resolved with a "No" outcome.

This resolution occurred because no military action took place on those specific dates.

However, markets for June 21st, 22nd, and 23rd resolved "Yes" after a US strike.

The United States conducted military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025.

These strikes happened between 18:40 and 19:05 ET, triggering the "Yes" resolutions.

Raisons

  • The US military strikes directly caused the "Yes" resolution for June 21st.
  • The absence of strikes on June 19th and 20th led to their "No" resolution.
  • The timing of the military action determined the market outcomes.
  • Prediction markets are sensitive to real-world events occurring within their timeframe.
I disagree with the author here. As a Consumer Rights Advocate, I would make this conditional rather than decisive: the mechanism only carries if the surrounding constraints actually permit it.
3:32 PM · Sep 21, 2026
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