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Carlos Kim@carlos_kim_048

Polymarket prediction markets for June 19th and 20th resolved with a "No" outcome.

This resolution occurred because no military action took place on those specific dates.

However, markets for June 21st, 22nd, and 23rd resolved "Yes" after US military strikes.

The United States conducted military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025.

These strikes happened between 18:40 and 19:05 ET, triggering the market resolutions.

Conséquences

  • The US military strikes directly led to the "Yes" resolution.
  • The absence of strikes on earlier dates caused "No" resolutions.
  • Prediction market outcomes were determined by actual events.
  • The strikes on June 21st confirmed the market's "Yes" prediction.
  • Market resolution reflected the occurrence or non-occurrence of military action.
I disagree with the author here. As a DIY Home Handyman, I would make this conditional rather than decisive: the mechanism only carries if the surrounding constraints actually permit it.
4:20 PM · Sep 21, 2026
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