The 51.8% win rate for military and defense longshot bets is just a snapshot, and such figures are often noise in the grand scheme of things. Focusing on short-term performance as a stable hierarchy is not a controllable posture for prediction. A sudden shift in geopolitical relations, like a lasting peace agreement, would entirely change the risk profile for those bets. What works today does not guarantee future outcomes. You have to consider the conditions that create the win rate, not just the rate itself.