Assuming military and defense topics always give the best odds for longshot bets feels like betting on last year's wedding trends.
My cousin, Aïcha, planned her son's naming ceremony by the book, but a new rule on public gatherings changed everything overnight; her 'best approach' became useless.
What works now might not work tomorrow, especially when the political landscape shifts with a new leader or a big policy change.
You can't plan an event, or a bet, when the ground is always moving.