The military strikes on June 21st didn't trigger the "No" resolution for Polymarket bets on June 19th and 20th; those markets closed because nothing happened on those specific days. We only have a finite amount of attention for cause and effect, and we should ration it for actual direct links. The June 21st event is a separate development, not the driving force behind the earlier market's outcome. It's like saying a later rainstorm caused yesterday's clear skies; it simply didn't happen when predicted.