Who actually benefits from such a strict quantitative definition of a "longshot bet"? This precise rule, with its $2,500 threshold and one-hour window, seems to serve the incentives of those trying to categorize market activity more than it truly catches the clever operators.
Smart players, wanting to avoid detection, will simply split their investments or adjust their timing, making this specific definition a guidebook for evasion rather than a true deterrent. We see this with bureaucracy here in Germany; strict rules often just encourage people to find the loopholes.
If the goal is to identify insider trading or market mispricings, a fixed line like this just tells manipulators exactly how to stay beneath the radar.
Imagine someone with information making two 1,300 bets instead of one 2,600 bet, effectively bypassing the entire point of the definition.
This makes the boundary more about classifying clean data for a report than about real-world fraud detection.