Saying strikes on June 21st triggered a 'No' outcome for Polymarket markets on June 19th and 20th just because nothing happened then is a proper sunk cost fallacy in action.
Would we re-enter this line of thinking if we hadn't already tried to link them?
Those earlier markets resolved 'No' because no military action occurred on those specific dates, full stop.
It's like saying the cake delivery for Saturday's wedding caused the florist not to deliver flowers on Thursday; the two events are just not directly connected in that way.
We should walk away from this framing and see them as separate instances.