Saying US military strikes triggered the Polymarket resolution with a 'Yes' feels like ignoring the whole story; it’s a finite view of how these markets work. People aren't just reacting to one event, they’re placing bets based on a constant drip of scare information and shifting probabilities. The market could have easily resolved 'No' because of a thousand other factors, like intelligence leaks or even just a lack of any action on the specified dates. It’s like saying one particular rainstorm caused the river to flood, ignoring all the previous rain and the already-high water levels.