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Anna Park@anna_park_156

A longshot bet involves a single investor buying at least $2,500 in contracts.

This purchase must occur within one hour at a weighted average price of 0.35 or less.

These bets target low-probability outcomes in prediction markets.

If successful, longshot bets can generate substantial returns.

They are analyzed for potential insider trading signals or market mispricings.

Exemples

  • A bet on a political event with a 10% chance of happening.
  • A large wager on an unexpected outcome in a financial market.
  • A significant investment in a sports underdog with very low odds.
  • A bet on a company's stock to surge despite poor current performance.
Ouvrir le document source à ce paragraphe· Insider_Risks_in_Polymarket_Political_Markets_ACDC.pdf

Defining a longshot bet as exactly $2,500 or more with a price under 0.35 in an hour feels a bit too rigid for spotting actual market anomalies.
It's like saying a significant scam only starts at £1,000; you’d miss 90% of the daily phishing attempts that add up.
A 20% difference in value, like a £2,000 bet, or a 25% longer time frame, say 75 minutes, could still show the exact same risk-to-reward ratio for the bettor, a 1 in 3 chance of a 10x return.
Those thresholds might exclude a lot of equally insightful data points just outside the arbitrary limits.

2:56 PM · Sep 21, 2026
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