The US military strike wasn't a direct trigger in the way a boss's signature directly triggers your weekly paycheque; it was a necessary condition, perhaps 60% of the equation, but not 100% of it.
Those crypto wallets didn't just passively profit; they placed longshot bets with a very low probability of success, maybe a 1-in-10 chance, meaning a 90% failure rate for most similar positions.
Their profit is a function of both the event and the calculated risk taken on a low-odds outcome.
Imagine hiring an applicant; the offer letter is the trigger, but your quantifiable skills account for, say, 75% of why you got it.