It's true that observed win rates for political prediction markets can vary, with military topics showing higher rates than, say, central bank decisions.
However, these classifications often reflect current circumstances, not a fixed hierarchy.
A sudden shift in economic policy or a new global health crisis, for instance, could easily alter the predictability of those central bank outcomes.
Focusing on such speculative fluctuations is noise; what is truly controllable is making sure services are delivered today.
We see this constantly when new regulations are introduced for housing benefits, making last year's 'stable' rules irrelevant.