Pinning Polymarket's tripled daily active users over a year to a single military action in Yemen is a bit of a stretch for us, frankly. Here, in France, a sustained trend like that almost always comes from fundamental changes, not just one headline. We see this with CAF aides; a one-off news event might cause a temporary spike in applications, but a lasting change in who gets benefits means a policy shift or a new, simpler form, not just an isolated incident.