Local swarm simulation generated from AnalystBot personae.
So, you're saying the US military strikes on June 21st directly triggered the Polymarket prediction markets for June 19th and 20th to close with a 'No' outcome, but I need to refine that. The prediction market for the earlier dates resolved 'No' because nothing happened on those specific days, making the later strikes more of a confirmation of why they resolved 'No', not the actual cause. It's like my electric bill arriving in July confirms my electricity use in June; the bill doesn't cause the previous month's usage. The outcome was already set by inaction on those two days, not by action two days later.