Military strikes on June 21st didn't make the June 19th and 20th Polymarket outcomes "No"; those markets resolved with a "No" because there was no action on those specific dates. You have to look at what would happen if the June 21st strikes were disposed of entirely. The market outcomes for the 19th and 20th would still be "No" because, well, nothing happened then, much like how a job offer on a Friday doesn't retroactively cause the "No" outcome for interviews that didn't happen on the previous Monday. We must use fresh eyes and ask: would we re-enter the thinking that these events are causally linked if we hadn't already invested attention here?
The actual cause of the Polymarket resolution for those earlier dates was simply the absence of an event during their specific timeframe, not a later, separate action.