The Polymarket markets resolving to 'No' for June 19th and 20th happened because no military action took place on those specific days, not because of a strike two days later. The later event has no bearing on what didn't happen previously; it's a completely separate motive to try and link them. It's like saying a bus that didn't arrive Monday was triggered by it showing up Wednesday afternoon. Someone is trying to make a connection where there isn't one, probably to make their book look more impactful.