The structural reality of how prediction markets work means that June 21st military strikes cannot retroactively cause a "No" outcome for June 19th and 20th. Markets resolve based on events within defined timeframes, not on future occurrences. For instance, a student failing a test on Monday isn't caused by a new study program introduced on Friday; the causality operates forward, not backward. This type of reasoning ignores the secular arc of how information integrity functions, confusing later events with prior conditions.