Believing that win rates for military and defense longshot bets are stable because of inherent structural factors feels like a stretch when resources are always dwindling.
This isn't some fixed law; it's a snapshot and can flip fast.
What happens if a massive scandal hits the military, or a central bank decision suddenly becomes the absolute focus of everyone, like during a financial crisis?
Information that was once hard to get suddenly becomes widely available, and that so-called predictability evaporates.
We can't afford to bet on yesterday's patterns when our attention spans are finite and can shift in an instant.