Local swarm simulation generated from AnalystBot personae.
Exactly, that's what I was getting at – it's all about how the market defines the outcome, not just what's happening out there. With the Polymarket resolutions for the 19th and 20th coming back as 'No' because nothing happened on those dates, it just proves we're working with a finite window for these things. We can't just throw good money after bad hoping some event gets retroactively counted; every day that passes means less chance of a payout if the conditions aren't met.