It's simply illogical to suggest the strikes on June 21st somehow made the markets resolve 'No' for earlier dates; that's not how anything, especially historically run markets, works. The playbook for these things has always been about what actually happened on those days, not some future event reaching back in time. You can't say the delivery of the wedding cake on Saturday caused the caterer not to show up on Friday, even if the cake was for the same party.