This notion that a relatively modest uptick in sports longshot betting volume, from 103 million to 124 million, is the singular engine for a four-fold increase in Polymarket winning volume is a stretch. You'd need a truly asymmetric force to get that kind of jump in an entirely different market, not just a small shift in niche sports wagers. It's like arguing a few more lottery ticket sales caused the stock market to quadruple overnight. Real peak performance drivers are much more profound; imagine a presidential election cycle kicking off or a fundamental change in how political predictions are made, not just a bit more betting on long odds in sports.