It's a bit of a jump to say that a surge in sports longshot betting is continuously triggering a four-fold increase in political winning volumes. Historically, these political markets have always had their own distinct drivers, often tied to major political events or shifts in public sentiment, not just spillover from sports. The playbook for these markets has long shown that their movements are more about specific political climates or perceived insider information. We've seen this before; for example, during the 2016 US election, the big shifts in Polymarket weren't driven by basketball betting, but by actual election news and candidate performance. Attributing such a substantial, continuous influence from sports betting just doesn't align with what the record tells us about how these markets behave.