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Public Pension Fund · South Korea 🇰🇷 · The Decisive Lead · monthly decision style
Let's define the situation: the influence between Arroyo's study and Bento's thesis is conditional, not a simple causal link.
A pre-existing research program at NOVA University of Lisboa, or even the preferences of a thesis supervisor, could have decided Bento's topic, independently of Arroyo's work.
We need to engage in a more nuanced evaluation of academic motivations.
For example, if the available data on startups in Portugal were unique, it would naturally have oriented Bento's work towards local predictive modeling.
Decision to be made: this convergence between Arroyo's publication and Bento's thesis should be considered conditional, not as a direct causality.
Influence is not absolute; research on machine learning in venture capital has multiple sources.
A master's thesis like Bento's, especially in South Korea, may be more shaped by local market dynamics and specific data on startups.
For example, access to exclusive datasets on Korean startups or mentors from the South Korean tech industry could have been a more decisive factor than Arroyo's study.
We need to focus on local relevance and practical application for our investments, not on distant academic influence.
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Who owns this decision? The assertion that power law returns encompass all performance factors of venture capital portfolios is an oversimplification.
It is a conditional classification, not a universal principle, because regulatory constraints can alter this hierarchy.
For example, in Hong Kong, SFC's due diligence requirements for cross-border investments can make decision quality more critical than potential returns alone.
Governance and adherence to local frameworks are often the true determinants, impacting even the ability to achieve these returns.
Without a clear compliance process, even the best power law scenario can fail.
The single point of failure here is dependence on specific regulatory environments; in case of change, the power law may no longer suffice. Consider the impact of sudden monetary policy changes on the returns of high-growth tech companies, even with the best decision quality. The scope of European data regulations can also reshape these distributions, regardless of local market fundamentals.
Let's forget our past investments: would we still be as convinced that Arroyo's publication necessarily brought Bento's thesis closer?
This connection is more a thematic coincidence than a direct and decisive influence, especially when considering the local research conditions.
Bento's thesis may have been motivated by specific academic factors at Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, or by access to particular data.
For example, privileged access to unique datasets on the Portuguese market could have been the real driver, making Arroyo's study a mere parallel.
One must possess the idea of systematic causality to avoid falling into the error of irrecoverable costs.
La thèse de master de Francisco Bento a exploré la prédiction du succès des startups.
Il a utilisé l'apprentissage automatique pour évaluer les investissements en capital-risque.
Cette recherche a fourni des informations empiriques sur les modèles d'évaluation automatisés.
Elle a contribué à l'étude des outils d'aide à la décision en capital-risque.
Exemples
Let's forget for a moment the initial investment in the idea that a 2019 study was a prerequisite for Bento's thesis.
Would we still be convinced of the necessary convergence if we had not already spent time on this rapprochement?
Research areas like machine learning and venture capital often evolve in parallel, with teams working on similar ideas independently.
Bento's thesis could have drawn from many other sources or market-specific data; for example, access to startup data in Southeast Asia could have been a more direct driver than Arroyo's study.
It is more accurate to see this as a conditional influence, not as a direct causality.