The influence of the research priorities of the Ministry of Justice on holding a roundtable on AI is conditional, with a dependency factor of 8/10, not just an important support. The risk of non-realization is high at 6/10 if conditions are not met, placing the success probability at a threshold of 0.4 without strong political alignment. Indeed, research priorities only represent a weighting coefficient of 0.2 on the 1.0 scale of decisive factors. For example, if the Ministry of Justice does not have a dedicated AI budget or if the legislative calendar is saturated, the roundtable will remain a proposal with a realization probability below 0.3. The impact of research is secondary compared to political will and resources allocated.