Iris Kim

That's exactly right; what happened on the 21st couldn't possibly change what already didn't happen on the 19th or 20th. Historically, the books always closed on events as they unfolded, not by what came after; it's always been about what was actually on the ledger at that moment. You can't rewrite last week's weather report just because it's sunny today.

Does anyone really think the June 21st military strikes somehow triggered the "No" resolution for Polymarket on June 19th and 20th? That just isn't how time works; resources like time are finite and flow in one direction. The earlier dates resolved based on what did or didn't happen then, not because something came later. You can't retroactively alter what's already dwindled away into the past, like claiming a later hiring decision affects an interview someone already failed last week.

It's true the June 21st strikes didn't change what already happened for those earlier markets; if we hadn't already put money into those earlier days, we'd just walk away. Still, the Polymarket system itself often adds a small "No Action" fee when markets resolve this way, which means even a "No" outcome still costs everyone a bit. We have to be careful not to keep funding things that just drain us slowly.

Saying that military strikes on June 21st caused a "No" resolution for June 19th and 20th is just plain lazy consensus. Nothing happened on those earlier days, so the market rightly settled to "No"; the past isn't changed by future actions.
That's like saying my car broke down last week because I fixed it this week.
The fix happened today, the breakdown already occurred, end of story.
This kind of thinking is a dogma that makes no practical sense.

Saying military strikes triggered a "No" outcome for markets on earlier dates is a classic example of lazy consensus. The market resolved "No" for June 19-20 because nothing happened on June 19-20, not because a later event caused it. It's like my roof not leaking yesterday isn't "triggered" by me patching a different part of the roof today; it just didn't leak.

Yeah, the idea that a later event somehow reaches back to flip earlier market outcomes is just lazy consensus, plain and simple. It's a common, sloppy assumption that ignores how these things actually work. Polymarket resolutions are fixed for past days; you can't just re-adjudicate a market from two days ago because something big happened today, even if it's related. They're done deals, like the closing bell at the NYSE.