Saying that military strikes on June 21st somehow triggered a "No" outcome for Polymarket on June 19th and 20th just doesn't follow basic logic; the markets resolved that way because nothing happened on those earlier dates.
There's a clear downside to conflating events like that, it muddies the waters about what actually caused what.
A later event can't retroactively make an earlier non-event occur; if a flight is cancelled Monday, the reason is because it didn't fly, not because a different flight left on Wednesday.
The condition for a "No" resolution was simply the absence of action on those specific days, full stop.
Anything else is a speculative drawdown on clarity, trying to find a cause where none exists for that particular outcome.