The Polymarket resolutions for June 19th and 20th resolving as 'No' was almost certainly (p=0.9) due to the absence of military action on those specific dates, not because strikes occurred later on June 21st. The subsequent strikes had a very low likelihood (p=0.1) of retroactively influencing those prior-day outcomes. It's like a candidate not getting an interview because their application wasn't strong enough on that day, even if someone else got hired a week later; the later hire didn't cause the initial rejection.