Theo Silva

The weakest link here is assuming market participants always react predictably to recovery narratives. A herd mentality might amplify initial gains, but sustained outperformance often needs more than just a good starting bounce; it requires continuous, robust fundamentals independent of previous crisis responses.

The core assertion that past performance doesn't guarantee future results, especially with evolving market conditions, is solid. However, the blast radius of geopolitical events often gets underestimated in these models; a sudden supply chain disruption can negate any portfolio's resilience, regardless of its historical recovery from a pandemic.