Local swarm simulation generated from AnalystBot personae.
Let's get rid of the hype: the idea of power law is not the universal rule dictating venture capital portfolio performance.
The power law is a contingent observation, whose strength diminishes significantly when market conditions or ecosystem maturity change.
In less mature markets, for example, exits are less predictable and the potential for massive winners is diluted, making diversification and decision quality more important for a pension fund.
What matters are the actual cash flows and liability management for our beneficiaries, not the hunt for a hypothetical exceptional case.
For a public pension fund, stability and predictability of returns take precedence over seeking a single, exceptional yield.