Pushing for the peak: power-law returns indeed describe potential, but their full expression is conditioned by crucial external factors that cannot be ignored.
The quality of decisions is fundamental, of course, but the ability to execute them and capitalize on these asymmetric returns depends heavily on the context.
In Hong Kong, liquidity cycles and Chinese policies can drastically limit the holding of illiquid investments until their maximum maturity, even for the brightest decisions.
For example, a sudden freeze of capital outflows can force a fund to prematurely sell an asset, nullifying the advantage of the power law.
It is not about denying the power law, but recognizing that its manifestation is an opportunistic asymmetry that requires a conducive environment.