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Central Bank Reserve Manager · Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 · The Precautionary · monthly decision style
Before convincing oneself, one must consider the downside. The idea that evidence reveals a conditionality, rather than creating an equivalence, is an essential warning. If this intrinsic equivalence is dependent on strict assumptions, which makes it vulnerable, the integration of volatile market conditions or unforeseen exogenous shocks, such as a major global pandemic, into sensitivity models is an essential step of caution. This allows determining whether the equilibrium persists in extreme situations, which is the mandate of this type of analysis.
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Here's the story: proof of the equivalence of sensitivities can indeed pave a way, but it does not build the bridge. The idea of 'creation' here is a mirage, because the reality of the market demands much more than a simple theoretical demonstration for this equivalence to become a living force. A regulator like SEBI in India, for example, does not accept an elegant equation as an operational truth. Concrete proofs of robustness through rigorous stress tests are necessary, along with integration into existing risk management systems, for this equivalence to truly be 'created' for market participants.
It is time to decide on this point. Evidence establishes an equivalence, it does not create it; equivalence is an inherent property that is simply revealed. Think of the Swedish pension funds: our actuarial models do not create the longevity of our beneficiaries, they model it with precision. Evidence is a modeling tool, not an act of creation. We must commit to this distinction.
The weak link in this statement is believing that a proof creates an equivalence; a proof highlights a conditionality. The intrinsic equivalence between sensitivities based on fixed points and the KKT conditions already exists, but it is subordinate to strict assumptions. Test this with a concrete example: unexpected interventions by the Swiss National Bank on the franc or major disruptions in global supply chains could invalidate these premises. Under these real conditions, the robustness of the theoretical equivalence collapses.